A look at Sarah Palin and the 2008 Election

As an aspiring journalist, I pride myself on coming up with creative headlines (hence the pop-culture reference in this one,) and leads, as well as witty sentences. But, even though blogger Bill Tancer of Time Magazine thought of it first, I have to say this.

“I doubt that any of us have ever considered any of our past vice-presidential candidates a sex symbol.”

Tancer couldn’t be more right. And even though, at 44, Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin’s looks are declining, one thing cannot be contested. She used to be hot.

Exhibit A:

Not bad eh? Taken in 1984, the photo shows Palin as an attractive 20-year old woman. She even finished second in the race for 1984 Miss Alaska, taking the “Miss Congeniality” title. Not only was she attractive, she was also a sportscaster for KTUU-TV in Anchorage. A hot female sportscaster. Can’t get much better than that. So I’ll admit. I am very attracted to Sarah Palin.

Let me rephrase that. I am attracted to who was then known as Sarah Heath. That is, 1980s Sarah Palin. The current Sarah Palin, not so much. Not only is she getting old, she stands for almost everything I’m opposed to, from being pro-life to just being pro-McCain. She is the republican vice presidential nominee, despite much better options (Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney,) being available. If John McCain wants to pry Hillary voters away from Obama, all the power to him. He will not be successful.

Another thing I don’t like about Palin is her skill in making choices. Say what you want about her voting for drilling in the ANWR (Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve,) she clearly has not made good choices in naming her kids: Track, Bristol, Willow, Piper, Trig. Only celebrities should have the right to give their kids stupid names like these. And she can’t control her own daughter, 17-year-old Bristol, who is unmarried and five-months pregnant, how will she control the country?

In choosing a vice-presidential candidate, the presidential candidate should always look at the one-heartbeat-away factor. If something were to happen to McCain, could Palin lead the country? No. Not even close. Now on the other side, if something were to happen to Barack Obama, would Joe Biden be able to lead the country? I really do think so.

Case closed? Not quite. According to USA Today’s Electoral Vote Tracker, the Democrats have 248 electoral votes on lockdown, to the Republicans’ 135. For those who don’t know, a presidential candidate needs 270 to win. Now let’s examine this deeper.

States Obama-Biden have on lockdown: Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, , Rode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and D.C.

States McCain-Palin have on lockdown: Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakotas, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Indianapolis, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.

Which leaves the following “swing” states open: Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, and New Hampshire.

Out of the leftover, no-locked down states, these should go to Obama: New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

And these should go to McCain: Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Arkansas, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, West Virginia.

After those states have been awarded, the new electoral vote tally? 264-227, Obama. Based on common knowledge/assumptions, Obama is a mere SIX electoral votes from being Amerca’s next president. Where will he get these votes? Two states seem to jump to mind, the only two I did not award to either candidate. Ohio and Florida, both huge players in the controversial 2000 election, where the Dems won the popular vote but failed to lock down the presidency.

Do I think Obama will win Florida? Yes. Do I think Obama will win Ohio? Again, yes. But this means nothing. Not only am I Canadian, I haven’t done nearly as much research as hundreds of political analysts from our neighbours to the south. The fact of the matter is, with a dead heat in Ohio and a slight Obama lead in Florida shown in recent polls, an Obama victory seems imminent (and deserved.)

Should make for an interesting two months.


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